How to do a Threat Analysis/Risks Assessment

A careful assessment of the potential dangers that you may face is an essential element of preparing for survival in your home. These risks can be classified as caused either by nature or by man. The latter include violence in the form of personal assault, terrorism, vandalism, arson, etc.  Nature can bring all kinds of disaster – flooding, wildfire, earthquake, pandemic, hurricane, you name it.

Threat Analysis/Risks Assessment

Identify the threats that are most likely to happen in your situation, and then do enough research to give you an idea of how to go about planning for that particular risk. An example might be if you’re in an area known for very strong storms. How often does this happen? What’s the chance of another disastrous storm in the near future?  What are the typical consequences that you must expect – breakdown of ordinary services such as electricity, communications, etc.?  What about the possibility of looting?

Once you have identified the major risks you may face, you will determine the length of time your supplies will need to last. One threat of nature may require enough supplies for a week or so, but a man made widespread societal disruption could go on for a long time.

Once you have amassed all this data, the next step is to list the resources and supplies you will need for each eventuality. Don’t forget to think through the skills you will need for each eventuality, and list them under “resources”. When considering supplies and equipment, it is wise to keep in mind that the time may come when barter will become a means of exchange and certain items will hold particular value in such a case. Even if you have a well-stocked pantry and arsenal and your home is as defensible as possible, there may very well be a situation in which the most sensible plan is to abandon your safe haven, if even only for a short time. You should prepare an emergency plan and at least one alternate plan for each such contingency, so that when any of these unexpected events occur, you will be able to implement the appropriate plan immediately. When a hurricane is predicted to hit, or if you’ve been alerted to a high probability of a major terrorist incident that is imminent, are times when such pre-planning may save your life.